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The Recap · Issue №16Category Deep Dive · Apr 27 – Aug 31

Jackets

Forty-six percent of the top ten turned over in 19 weeks and the crown still changed hands five times.

By the Radar desk·4 min read·throughAIGoogleYouTube

Five brands sat at #1 over 19 weeks. That number alone tells you the jackets category will not sit still. From April 27 to August 31, 398 brands got tracked, 336 of them new to the list, and almost half the top ten turned over.

The names at the bottom moved fast. Cotopaxi climbed 22 spots. Fjallraven fell 9. Gore Wear showed up out of nowhere at #27. Whatever settled at the top by August did not get there by standing still.

We take one category apart in depth as our history deepens. This season, Jackets earned the slot — picked on a weighted read of rank movement, AI disagreement and reviewer coverage.

Fig. 1Why Jackets, this season?
Rank turnover by category · Apr 27 – Aug 31
Candles & Home Fragrance
67%
Toys & Games
65%
Jewelry
65%
For Men
65%
Body Care
64%
Jackets
46%
Share of each category's top ten that changed places over the tracked window. The issue's scope is picked on a weighted read — movement, AI disagreement and reviewer coverage — so the highlighted bar need not be the tallest.
Source · Rank turnover over the tracked window, by category

as of August 31 · 6 categories

398
brands tracked in the category
5
buyer intents underneath it
5
times the #1 changed in 19 weeks
336
brands debuted since tracking began
46%
of the top ten turned over
The movement

Who climbed, who slipped, who arrived.

Cotopaxi climbed from #45 to #23, Fjällräven ran from #33 to #17, and Millet moved from #41 to #28. On the other side, Fjallraven — the other spelling, a separate line in the data — slipped from #9 to #18, L.L.Bean dropped from #23 to #30, and Mammut fell from #14 to #19. Gore Wear arrived cold at #27 on May 11 and held its ground.

Fig. 2Movement across the window, at a glance?
Risers
Cotopaxi
Cotopaxi▲ 22
#45 → #23

Climbed 22 places over the window

Fjällräven
#33 → #17

Climbed 16 places over the window

Millet
Millet▲ 13
#41 → #28

Climbed 13 places over the window

Fallers
Fjallraven
#9 → #18

Slipped 9 places over the window

L.L.Bean
#23 → #30

Slipped 7 places over the window

Mammut
Mammut▼ 5
#14 → #19

Slipped 5 places over the window

Newcomers
Gore Wear
Gore WearNew · May 11
now #27

Arrived at #27 during the window

Every brand that moved three or more places, or arrived new to the board, grouped by direction — measured over the whole tracked window (Apr 27 – Aug 31), not week-over-week.
Source · Net rank change & debuts over the tracked window

as of August 31 · 10 intents

Lens 01 · The AI panel

The leaderboard churned.

Patagonia, Arc'teryx, The North Face, and Outdoor Research ran the race for #1, and the lead changed hands five times in 19 weeks. No one brand pulled away. The rank at the very top moved as often as the brands buried in the 20s and 30s, which says the disagreement wasn't confined to the margins — it ran straight through the category's spine.

Fig. 3The rank race, month by month?5Changes of the #1 spot in 19 weeks
#1#6#11Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3Aug 10Aug 17Aug 24Aug 31PatagoniaArc'teryxThe North FaceOutdoor ResearchRabMountain Hardwear
climbedslippednewcomerheld
Rank month by month, #1 at the top. Solid lines are established brands; the dashed line marks a newcomer's debut. Watch the crossings.
Source · ChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · AI Mode leaderboard

as of August 31 · vs August 24 · 10 intents

The split of the season

Same question, different answers.

Ask six assistants for the best winter jacket and you get six answers. AI Mode named the McMurdo Parka. ChatGPT named the Therme SV Parka. Claude named the Nano Puff Jacket. Perplexity named the McMurdo Down Parka — close to AI Mode's pick but not the same listing. Gemini named the Down Sweater. Grok named the Expedition Parka 2026. Not one model agreed with another on the exact product.

Fig. 3a"Best Winter Jackets"?
AI ModeAI ModeThe North FaceMcMurdo Parkaby The North Face · AI #224.0 reviewers · 4.6★ buyersDivided
GPTGPTArc'teryxTherme SV Parkaby Arc'teryx · AI #25no human read
ClaudeClaudePatagoniaNano Puff Jacketby Patagonia · AI #84.0 reviewers · 4.6★ buyersDivided
PerplexityPerplexityThe North FaceMcMurdo Down Parkaby The North Face · AI #3no human read
GeminiGeminiPatagoniaDown Sweaterby Patagonia · AI #14.2 reviewers · 4.6★ buyersno human read
When the assistants answer the same question with different products, the disagreement itself is the signal — the human cross-check shows whose pick the buyers and reviewers actually back.
Source · Each assistant's #1 for one buyer-question · cross-checked vs reviewers + buyers

as of August 31 · vs August 24 · 6 AI models

Lens 02 · Google reviews

The crowd saw it first.

The crowd and the models are not reading from the same page. Uniqlo pulled 4.9 stars across 48 reviews and the models buried it at #22. Montbell hit 4.8 stars and landed at #13. Helly Hansen, with 1,500 reviews behind its 4.7 stars, sat at #11. The category average is 4.6 stars — these three all beat it, and all three sit well outside the top ten the models actually push.

Fig. 4Where the crowd and the models disagree?4.6★Category average across tracked SKUs
The crowd's early picks
UniqloUniqlo4.9
48

models ranked it #22

MontbellMontbell4.8
11

models ranked it #13

1.5k

models ranked it #11

bar scale 4.04.9

Brands reviewers rated highly before the models caught up.
Source · Google review ratings & volume

as of August 31 · vs August 24

The cross-check

Where the machines and the room part ways.

The panel and the humans split on where the praise belongs. The Helium Rain Jacket sits at #2 with the AI panel while humans stay cool on it. The Houdini Jacket gets AI's #4 and the same cold shoulder from reviewers and buyers. Meanwhile the Eos Down Jacket sits at #24 and the Gamma MX Hoody at #30 — both ranked low by the models, both liked more by the people who actually wear them. The one place everyone agrees: the Squamish Hoody, AI's #1 and no argument from the humans.

Fig. 4aAI rank vs the humans, product by product?
Overrated by the machines

AI ranks them high — reviewers + buyers cooler.

Sleepers the AIs miss

Humans rate them top — the models rank them low.

Where they agree

AI and the humans land in the same place.

Overrated = the AIs rank it well above what reviewers and buyers do; sleepers = the humans’ favourites the models still rank low; consensus = where both land together.
Source · AI aggregate rank vs reviewer score + buyer rating

as of August 31 · vs August 24 · 27 reviewed products

Owners vs the algorithm

What owners flag months in.

Fresh ratings hide what months of wear reveal. The Gamma Hoody carries a 4.8-star average and AI's #7 slot, but owners flag a fit that runs inconsistent across sizes — two threads, moderate volume, invisible in the score. The Kor AirShell Hoody, 4.6 stars and AI's #11, gets the same treatment over sleeves that run short. The Versalite Jacket, 4.8 stars and AI's #18, has owners reporting the waterproof coating breaks down and the jacket leaks after months of use. None of it shows up until you go looking.

Fig. 4bThe AI #1, the star average — and what long-term owners report?

Owners: Fit is weird and inconsistent across sizes

recurring · 2 threads★ not in the 4.8★ average

Owners: Sleeves run noticeably short

widespread · 2 threads★ not in the 4.6★ average

Owners: Waterproof coating degrades; jacket leaks after months of use

recurring · 2 threads★ not in the 4.8★ average

Owners: Stiff front zipper becomes difficult to operate

recurring · 2 threads★ not in the 4.5★ average
Products the panel ranks high and the rating rates well, where owners months in keep raising a fault the fresh star average doesn't show.
Source · AI aggregate rank + Google star average vs clustered forum-owner complaints

as of August 31 · vs August 24 · 4 owner findings

Lens 03 · Video reviews

Where the cameras pointed.

Creator coverage tilted hard toward one name. Of 138 tracked reviews, Eddie Bauer took half the recent share. Nike and Columbia split the rest evenly, 25% each. The camera time didn't follow the leaderboard — it followed whoever was willing to send product.

Fig. 5Creator coverage, start of the period vs now?138Creator reviews tracked in the category
Share of creator coverage
Start of the period
7%
6%
6%
Others81%
Now
Eddie Bauer50%
Nike25%
Columbia25%
Share of creator reviews by brand at the start of the period and today. Attention is a leading indicator of rank.
Source · Tracked YouTube creator reviews

as of August 31 · vs August 24

The rivalries

The fights that defined the window.

The crown · 5 lead changes

Patagonia and Arc'teryx sit at the top of the category.

The structural fight
Incumbents
vs
Fresh / upstart

The fresh-upstart band took 20 points of the top ten from the incumbents over the window.

The shape of the shift

What actually moved underneath the leader.

The top ten was 100% incumbents in week one. By week 19, it was 80%. Twenty points moved to fresh and upstart brands — not a landslide, but a real crack in a shelf that used to belong to the same handful of names.

Fig. 6Share of the top ten, by segment?
0%25%50%75%100%Incumbents80% → was 100%Fresh / upstart20% → was 0%Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3Aug 10Aug 17Aug 24Aug 31
Each band is a segment's share of the ten leading slots, month by month. Forget the #1 — the story is the drift between bands.
Source · Segment share of the Jackets top ten · Apr 27 – Aug 31

as of August 31 · vs August 24 · 2 segments

The editor's read

Nineteen weeks, five different leaders, and a top ten that's only 80% the same brands it used to be. Patagonia and Arc'teryx still fight for the crown, but the ground under them is not the ground it was in April. The edge goes to whoever adapts fastest to a shelf that keeps turning — not whoever held it first.

What to watch next season
  • 01Whether Cotopaxi keeps climbing past #23 or stalls like a typical spring riser.
  • 02Whether the fresh-upstart share of the top ten grows past 20% or the incumbents claw it back.
  • 03Whether Eddie Bauer's creator dominance holds or Nike and Columbia close the gap.
See the full Jackets ranking →
The Recap · Issue №16 · Deep dive into Jackets · Apr 27 – Aug 31Reported throughChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · AI Mode leaderboardGoogle review ratings & volumeTracked YouTube creator reviewsCaptured August 31How we do this →

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