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The Recap · Issue №14Category Deep Dive · Apr 27 – Aug 3

Skincare

The crown never changed hands the room around it did.

By the Radar desk·3 min read·throughAIGoogleYouTube

Eighty-three percent of the top ten turned over in fifteen weeks, and still the No. 1 seat never moved. That is the shape of skincare right now. Underneath a still crown, 778 new brands walked into the tracking set and 64 percent of the leaderboard's top ten changed hands.

Naturium climbed 81 spots. Dr. Jart+ climbed 69. Medik8 climbed 51. Aveeno, Differin, and Bioderma all slid down to make room. The names at the very top held their ground. Everything below them moved.

We take one category apart in depth as our history deepens. This season, Skincare earned the slot — picked on a weighted read of rank movement, AI disagreement and reviewer coverage.

Fig. 1Why Skincare, this season?
Rank turnover by category · Apr 27 – Aug 3
Toys & Games
78%
For Women
74%
Bedding
74%
Everyday Basics
73%
Pantry & Condiments
73%
Skincare
64%
Share of each category's top ten that changed places over the tracked window. The issue's scope is picked on a weighted read — movement, AI disagreement and reviewer coverage — so the highlighted bar need not be the tallest.
Source · Rank turnover over the tracked window, by category

as of August 3 · 6 categories

883
brands tracked in the category
12
buyer intents underneath it
0
times the #1 changed in 15 weeks
778
brands debuted since tracking began
64%
of the top ten turned over
The movement

Who climbed, who slipped, who arrived.

Naturium ran from #94 to #13, Dr. Jart+ from #87 to #18, Medik8 from #70 to #19. Aveeno fell to #25, Differin to #26, Bioderma to #27. Biossance, Good Molecules, and Skinfix all arrived in the same week, May 4, landing at #23, #28, and #30.

Fig. 2Movement across the window, at a glance?
Risers
Naturium
Naturium▲ 81
#94 → #13

Climbed 81 places over the window

Dr. Jart+
Dr. Jart+▲ 69
#87 → #18

Climbed 69 places over the window

Medik8
Medik8▲ 51
#70 → #19

Climbed 51 places over the window

Fallers
Aveeno
Aveeno▼ 12
#13 → #25

Slipped 12 places over the window

Differin
Differin▼ 10
#16 → #26

Slipped 10 places over the window

Bioderma
#18 → #27

Slipped 9 places over the window

Newcomers
Biossance
BiossanceNew · May 4
now #23

Arrived at #23 during the window

Good Molecules
Good MoleculesNew · May 4
now #28

Arrived at #28 during the window

Skinfix
SkinfixNew · May 4
now #30

Arrived at #30 during the window

Every brand that moved three or more places, or arrived new to the board, grouped by direction — measured over the whole tracked window (Apr 27 – Aug 3), not week-over-week.
Source · Net rank change & debuts over the tracked window

as of August 3 · 24 intents

Lens 01 · The AI panel

The leaderboard churned.

Four brands sit in the rank race — La Roche-Posay, CeraVe, Paula's Choice, The Ordinary. Fifteen weeks, zero changes at #1. The models argue everywhere else on the board. At the very top they don't argue at all.

Fig. 3The rank race, month by month?0Changes of the #1 spot in 15 weeks
#1#6#10Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3La Roche-PosayCeraVePaula's ChoiceThe OrdinaryNeutrogenaSkinCeuticals
climbedslippednewcomerheld
Rank month by month, #1 at the top. Solid lines are established brands; the dashed line marks a newcomer's debut. Watch the crossings.
Source · ChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · AI Mode leaderboard

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 24 intents

The split of the season

Same question, different answers.

The buyer question "Best Peptide Serums" split the panel wide open. Six assistants, six different picks. ChatGPT went with Liquid Peptides. Gemini chose Pro-Collagen Multi-Peptide Booster. AI Mode named P-TIOX Anti-Aging Peptide Serum. Claude picked Multi-Peptide Serum for Hair Density. Perplexity backed TNS Advanced+ Serum. Grok chose Multi-Peptide + Copper Peptides 3.0. No two assistants agreed.

Fig. 3a"Best Peptide Serums"?
When the assistants answer the same question with different products, the disagreement itself is the signal — the human cross-check shows whose pick the buyers and reviewers actually back.
Source · Each assistant's #1 for one buyer-question · cross-checked vs reviewers + buyers

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 6 AI models

Lens 02 · Google reviews

The crowd saw it first.

CosRX pulls 4.8 stars across 696,000 reviews and the models rank it #8. Bioderma pulls the same 4.8 stars, 137,000 reviews, and sits at #27. Good Molecules matches that 4.8, with 19,000 reviews behind it, and lands at #28. The crowd keeps handing out top marks to brands the models rank in the twenties.

Fig. 4Where the crowd and the models disagree?4.6★Category average across tracked SKUs
The crowd's early picks
CosRXCosRX4.8
696k

models ranked it #8

BiodermaBioderma4.8
137k

models ranked it #27

19k

models ranked it #28

bar scale 4.04.9

Brands reviewers rated highly before the models caught up.
Source · Google review ratings & volume

as of August 3 · vs July 27

The cross-check

Where the machines and the room part ways.

The panel rates Mighty Patch Original at #5 and Toleriane Double Repair Face Moisturizer at #2, both warmer than the humans score them. Salicylic Acid Daily Gentle Cleanser sits at #30 in the AI rankings while buyers and reviewers run warmer than that. Facial Fuel Energizing Moisture Treatment for Men sits at #29 under the same gap. Effaclar Medicated Gel Cleanser and Retinol 0.2% in Squalane are where AI and humans meet, both landing at #10 and #17.

Fig. 4aAI rank vs the humans, product by product?
Overrated = the AIs rank it well above what reviewers and buyers do; sleepers = the humans’ favourites the models still rank low; consensus = where both land together.
Source · AI aggregate rank vs reviewer score + buyer rating

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 30 reviewed products

Lens 03 · Video reviews

Where the cameras pointed.

CeraVe holds half of all tracked creator coverage, 50 percent of 142 reviews. Cetaphil and Eucerin split the rest evenly, 25 percent each. Three names carry the entire conversation on camera.

Fig. 5Creator coverage, start of the period vs now?142Creator reviews tracked in the category
Share of creator coverage
Start of the period
8%
7%
7%
Others79%
Now
CeraVe50%
Cetaphil25%
Eucerin25%
Share of creator reviews by brand at the start of the period and today. Attention is a leading indicator of rank.
Source · Tracked YouTube creator reviews

as of August 3 · vs July 27

The rivalries

The fights that defined the window.

The crown · 6 lead changes

La Roche-Posay and CeraVe sit at the top of the category.

The structural fight
Incumbents
vs
Fresh / upstart

The fresh-upstart band took 20 points of the top ten from the incumbents over the window.

The shape of the shift

What actually moved underneath the leader.

Incumbents held 100 percent of the top ten in the first week and 80 percent by the last. Fresh and upstart brands took the other 20 points. The crown didn't move. The floor under it gave way in pieces.

Fig. 6Share of the top ten, by segment?
0%25%50%75%100%Incumbents80% → was 100%Fresh / upstart20% → was 0%Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3
Each band is a segment's share of the ten leading slots, month by month. Forget the #1 — the story is the drift between bands.
Source · Segment share of the Skincare top ten · Apr 27 – Aug 3

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 2 segments

The editor's read

Fifteen weeks of turnover and the same two names, La Roche-Posay and CeraVe, still sit at the top of the fight. The real contest is one level down, where Naturium, Dr. Jart+, and Medik8 forced their way into the top twenty and older names like Aveeno and Bioderma gave ground. The upstarts have the momentum. The incumbents still have the summit.

What to watch next season
  • 01Whether Naturium's climb keeps going or stalls near the top ten.
  • 02Whether the crown at #1 finally moves after fifteen static weeks.
  • 03Whether newcomers Biossance, Good Molecules, and Skinfix hold their debut ranks or slide.
See the full Skincare ranking →
The Recap · Issue №14 · Deep dive into Skincare · Apr 27 – Aug 3Reported throughChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · AI Mode leaderboardGoogle review ratings & volumeTracked YouTube creator reviewsCaptured August 3How we do this →

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