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The Recap · Issue №14Category Deep Dive · May 11 – Aug 3

Hair Care

A category that looked settled turned over twice in three months.

By the Radar desk·3 min read·throughAIGoogle

Seven times in thirteen weeks the top spot in Hair Care changed hands. That is the number to sit with. Kérastase and Olaplex traded the crown like two boxers who won't stay down, while Briogeo and Redken circled the ring waiting for an opening.

Underneath the crown, the floor moved. Verb climbed 83 spots. Vegamour climbed 55. Paul Mitchell, an old name, gave back 14. Head & Shoulders walked in at #9 in May and never looked new. Sixty-six percent of the top ten turned over across the window. Two out of three chairs got new owners.

We take one category apart in depth as our history deepens. This season, Hair Care earned the slot — picked on a weighted read of rank movement, AI disagreement and reviewer coverage.

Fig. 1Why Hair Care, this season?
Rank turnover by category · May 11 – Aug 3
Toys & Games
81%
For Women
79%
Lip Care & Cosmetics
75%
Everyday Basics
75%
Body Care
74%
Hair Care
66%
Share of each category's top ten that changed places over the tracked window. The issue's scope is picked on a weighted read — movement, AI disagreement and reviewer coverage — so the highlighted bar need not be the tallest.
Source · Rank turnover over the tracked window, by category

as of August 3 · 6 categories

792
brands tracked in the category
8
buyer intents underneath it
7
times the #1 changed in 13 weeks
641
brands debuted since tracking began
66%
of the top ten turned over
The movement

Who climbed, who slipped, who arrived.

Verb rode 83 spots to #13. Vegamour climbed 55 to #21. Gisou added 39 to reach #24. Paul Mitchell slipped from #8 to #22, Pantene fell 8 spots, SheaMoisture gave back 6. Three newcomers walked straight into the top twenty: Head & Shoulders at #9, Nizoral at #11, K18 at #17.

Fig. 2Movement across the window, at a glance?
Risers
Verb
Verb▲ 83
#96 → #13

Climbed 83 places over the window

Vegamour
Vegamour▲ 55
#76 → #21

Climbed 55 places over the window

Gisou
Gisou▲ 39
#63 → #24

Climbed 39 places over the window

Fallers
Paul Mitchell
#8 → #22

Slipped 14 places over the window

Pantene
Pantene▼ 8
#21 → #29

Slipped 8 places over the window

SheaMoisture
#10 → #16

Slipped 6 places over the window

Newcomers
Head & ShouldersNew · May 25
now #9

Arrived at #9 during the window

Nizoral
NizoralNew · Jun 8
now #11

Arrived at #11 during the window

K18
K18New · Jun 8
now #17

Arrived at #17 during the window

Every brand that moved three or more places, or arrived new to the board, grouped by direction — measured over the whole tracked window (May 11 – Aug 3), not week-over-week.
Source · Net rank change & debuts over the tracked window

as of August 3 · 16 intents

Lens 01 · The AI panel

The leaderboard churned.

Four brands ran this race — Kérastase, Olaplex, Briogeo, Redken — and none of them held the lead for long. The #1 spot changed seven times in thirteen weeks. That is a crown that would not sit still. Whatever model you ask, ask again next week.

Fig. 3The rank race, month by month?7Changes of the #1 spot in 13 weeks
#1#6#10May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3KérastaseOlaplexBriogeoRedkenMoroccanoilLiving Proof
climbedslippednewcomerheld
Rank month by month, #1 at the top. Solid lines are established brands; the dashed line marks a newcomer's debut. Watch the crossings.
Source · ChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · AI Mode leaderboard

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 16 intents

The split of the season

Same question, different answers.

Best Hair Oils split five ways to five different names. ChatGPT went with Rosemary Mint Scalp & Hair Strengthening Oil. Perplexity picked Ghost Weightless Hair Oil. AI Mode and Grok each named a different Treatment oilTreatment Original Hair Oil and Treatment Oil. Gemini and Claude landed on the same call, No. 7 Bonding Oil, reviewers at 3.5 stars, buyers at 4.5. Two of the five agreed. The other three went their own way.

Fig. 3a"Best Hair Oils"?
GPTGPTMielleRosemary Mint Scalp & Hair Strengthening Oilby Mielleno human read
GeminiGeminiOlaplexNo. 7 Bonding Oilby Olaplex · AI #23.5 reviewers · 4.5★ buyersDivided
AI ModeAI ModeMoroccanoilTreatment Original Hair Oilby Moroccanoil · AI #5no human read
ClaudeClaudeOlaplexNo. 7 Bonding Oilby Olaplex · AI #23.5 reviewers · 4.5★ buyersDivided
PerplexityPerplexityVerbGhost Weightless Hair Oilby Verb · AI #13no human read
GrokGrokMoroccanoilTreatment Oilby Moroccanoil · AI #5no human read
When the assistants answer the same question with different products, the disagreement itself is the signal — the human cross-check shows whose pick the buyers and reviewers actually back.
Source · Each assistant's #1 for one buyer-question · cross-checked vs reviewers + buyers

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 6 AI models

Lens 02 · Google reviews

The crowd saw it first.

The crowd and the panel don't read the same room. The Ordinary pulls 4.7 stars across 841,000 reviews and sits at #20 in the models' eyes. Dyson matches that 4.7 across 127,000 reviews and lands at #19. Moroccanoil, 4.7 stars, 142,000 reviews, sits at #5 — the one case where the crowd's love and the algorithm's math roughly agree.

Fig. 4Where the crowd and the models disagree?4.5★Category average across tracked SKUs
The crowd's early picks
841k

models ranked it #20

DysonDyson4.7
127k

models ranked it #19

142k

models ranked it #5

bar scale 4.04.9

Brands reviewers rated highly before the models caught up.
Source · Google review ratings & volume

as of August 3 · vs July 27

The cross-check

Where the machines and the room part ways.

No. 7 Bonding Oil sits at #2 with the AI panel; owners and reviewers are cooler on it. No. 4 Bond Maintenance Shampoo gets the same treatment, ranked #4 by the models while humans shrug. Meanwhile Ghost Oil sits at #25 and Supersonic r at #22 — both underrated by the panel, both warmer with real buyers. Treatment Original and Hydrate Shampoo are the rare peace treaty: AI and humans both put them at #9 and #11.

Fig. 4aAI rank vs the humans, product by product?
Overrated by the machines

AI ranks them high — reviewers + buyers cooler.

OlaplexNo. 7 Bonding OilAI #2 · 3.5 rev · 4.5★ buy
−19 vs AI
OlaplexNo. 4 Bond Maintenance ShampooAI #4 · 3.3 rev · 4.5★ buy
−19 vs AI
BriogeoDon't Despair Repair Deep Conditioning MaskAI #1 · 3.9 rev · 4.4★ buy
−17 vs AI
Sleepers the AIs miss

Humans rate them top — the models rank them low.

VerbGhost OilAI #25 · 4.7★ buy
+22 vs AI
DysonSupersonic rAI #22 · 4.8★ buy
+20 vs AI
KérastaseNutritive Bain Satin Riche ShampooAI #28 · 4.6★ buy
+20 vs AI
Where they agree

AI and the humans land in the same place.

MoroccanoilTreatment OriginalAI #9 · 4.2 rev · 4.8★ buy
in step
PureologyHydrate ShampooAI #11 · 4.3 rev · 4.6★ buy
in step
NeutrogenaT/Gel Therapeutic Shampoo Original FormulaAI #14 · 4.4★ buy
in step
Overrated = the AIs rank it well above what reviewers and buyers do; sleepers = the humans’ favourites the models still rank low; consensus = where both land together.
Source · AI aggregate rank vs reviewer score + buyer rating

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 25 reviewed products

Owners vs the algorithm

What owners flag months in.

Hydrating Shampoo carries a 4.5 star average and an AI rank of #10, but forum owners flag it leaving hair oily and heavy over time, two threads worth of complaint the fresh rating never shows. Ghost Conditioner, 4.6 stars and AI rank #23, draws its own quiet complaint — lathering up, a suspected reformulation — also invisible until you've owned the bottle a few months.

Fig. 4bThe AI #1, the star average — and what long-term owners report?
MoroccanoilHydrating ShampooAI #10 · 4.5★ average
Moderate

Owners: Shampoo leaves hair oily and heavy over time

recurring · 2 threads★ not in the 4.5★ average
VerbGhost ConditionerAI #23 · 4.6★ average
Moderate

Owners: Conditioner lathering up and possible reformulation over time

widespread · 2 threads★ not in the 4.6★ average
Products the panel ranks high and the rating rates well, where owners months in keep raising a fault the fresh star average doesn't show.
Source · AI aggregate rank + Google star average vs clustered forum-owner complaints

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 2 owner findings

The rivalries

The fights that defined the window.

The crown · 5 lead changes

Kérastase and Olaplex sit at the top of the category.

The structural fight
Incumbents
vs
Fresh / upstart

The fresh-upstart band took 30 points of the top ten from the incumbents over the window.

The shape of the shift

What actually moved underneath the leader.

The top ten started the window 100% incumbent. By the last week, fresh and upstart brands held 30 points of it. Verb, Vegamour, and Gisou did not just climb — they took seats that used to belong to somebody else. Paul Mitchell's fall and the newcomers' rise are the same story told twice.

Fig. 5Share of the top ten, by segment?
0%25%50%75%100%Incumbents70% → was 100%Fresh / upstart30% → was 0%May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3
Each band is a segment's share of the ten leading slots, month by month. Forget the #1 — the story is the drift between bands.
Source · Segment share of the Hair Care top ten · May 11 – Aug 3

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 2 segments

The editor's read

Seven changes at #1 says the crown is not settled and won't be soon. Kérastase and Olaplex have the size to keep trading it, but Briogeo and Redken are close enough to matter. The real fight is one level down, where upstarts took nearly a third of the top ten in thirteen weeks. Bet on more turnover, not less.

What to watch next season
  • 01Whether Verb, Vegamour, or Gisou can crack the top ten outright.
  • 02Whether the #1 crown changes hands an eighth time.
  • 03Whether owner complaints on Hydrating Shampoo and Ghost Conditioner start moving the star average.
See the full Hair Care ranking →
The Recap · Issue №14 · Deep dive into Hair Care · May 11 – Aug 3Reported throughChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · AI Mode leaderboardGoogle review ratings & volumeCaptured August 3How we do this →

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