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The Recap · Issue №14Category Deep Dive · Apr 27 – Aug 3

Skincare

The crown held steady the field underneath it turned over.

By the Radar desk·3 min read·throughAIGoogleYouTube

Eighty-three brands never existed in this category until the tracking started. Now 778 of them do. Fifteen weeks, 883 brands total, and 64% of the top ten changed hands while the No. 1 spot never moved once.

That's the shape of Skincare right now. A calm crown and a churning field underneath it. Naturium climbed 81 spots. Aveeno slipped 12. Three brands that didn't exist in the top thirty in April sat there by May. The surface is still. The undertow is not.

We take one category apart in depth as our history deepens. This season, Skincare earned the slot — picked on a weighted read of rank movement, AI disagreement and reviewer coverage.

Fig. 1Why Skincare, this season?
Rank turnover by category · Apr 27 – Aug 3
Toys & Games
78%
For Women
74%
Bedding
74%
Everyday Basics
73%
Pantry & Condiments
73%
Skincare
64%
Share of each category's top ten that changed places over the tracked window. The issue's scope is picked on a weighted read — movement, AI disagreement and reviewer coverage — so the highlighted bar need not be the tallest.
Source · Rank turnover over the tracked window, by category

as of August 3 · 6 categories

883
brands tracked in the category
12
buyer intents underneath it
0
times the #1 changed in 15 weeks
778
brands debuted since tracking began
64%
of the top ten turned over
The movement

Who climbed, who slipped, who arrived.

Naturium jumped from #94 to #13, Dr. Jart+ went from #87 to #18, and Medik8 climbed 51 spots to #19. Aveeno, Differin, and Bioderma all slipped, Aveeno down twelve spots to #25. Biossance, Good Molecules, and Skinfix all arrived in the same week, May 4, landing at #23, #28, and #30.

Fig. 2Movement across the window, at a glance?
Risers
Naturium
Naturium▲ 81
#94 → #13

Climbed 81 places over the window

Dr. Jart+
Dr. Jart+▲ 69
#87 → #18

Climbed 69 places over the window

Medik8
Medik8▲ 51
#70 → #19

Climbed 51 places over the window

Fallers
Aveeno
Aveeno▼ 12
#13 → #25

Slipped 12 places over the window

Differin
Differin▼ 10
#16 → #26

Slipped 10 places over the window

Bioderma
#18 → #27

Slipped 9 places over the window

Newcomers
Biossance
BiossanceNew · May 4
now #23

Arrived at #23 during the window

Good Molecules
Good MoleculesNew · May 4
now #28

Arrived at #28 during the window

Skinfix
SkinfixNew · May 4
now #30

Arrived at #30 during the window

Every brand that moved three or more places, or arrived new to the board, grouped by direction — measured over the whole tracked window (Apr 27 – Aug 3), not week-over-week.
Source · Net rank change & debuts over the tracked window

as of August 3 · 24 intents

Lens 01 · The AI panel

The leaderboard churned.

Four brands run this race — La Roche-Posay, CeraVe, Paula's Choice, The Ordinary — and in fifteen weeks, #1 never changed. No crossing, no lead swap. Whatever the models argue about below the top spot, they agree on the top of it.

Fig. 3The rank race, month by month?0Changes of the #1 spot in 15 weeks
#1#6#10Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3La Roche-PosayCeraVePaula's ChoiceThe OrdinaryNeutrogenaSkinCeuticals
climbedslippednewcomerheld
Rank month by month, #1 at the top. Solid lines are established brands; the dashed line marks a newcomer's debut. Watch the crossings.
Source · ChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · AI Mode leaderboard

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 24 intents

The split of the season

Same question, different answers.

Ask six models for the best peptide serum and you get six different answers. ChatGPT said Liquid Peptides. Gemini said Pro-Collagen Multi-Peptide Booster. AI Mode said P-TIOX Anti-Aging Peptide Serum. Claude said Multi-Peptide Serum for Hair Density. Perplexity said TNS Advanced+ Serum. Grok said Multi-Peptide + Copper Peptides 3.0. No overlap. Six models, six picks.

Fig. 3a"Best Peptide Serums"?
When the assistants answer the same question with different products, the disagreement itself is the signal — the human cross-check shows whose pick the buyers and reviewers actually back.
Source · Each assistant's #1 for one buyer-question · cross-checked vs reviewers + buyers

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 6 AI models

Lens 02 · Google reviews

The crowd saw it first.

CosRX pulls a 4.8-star average across 696,000 reviews and the models still rank it #8, not #1. Bioderma holds the same 4.8 stars over 137,000 reviews and sits at #27. Good Molecules matches that 4.8 with 19,000 reviews and lands at #28. The crowd keeps handing out top marks to brands the panel treats as middle of the pack.

Fig. 4Where the crowd and the models disagree?4.6★Category average across tracked SKUs
The crowd's early picks
CosRXCosRX4.8
696k

models ranked it #8

BiodermaBioderma4.8
137k

models ranked it #27

19k

models ranked it #28

bar scale 4.04.9

Brands reviewers rated highly before the models caught up.
Source · Google review ratings & volume

as of August 3 · vs July 27

The cross-check

Where the machines and the room part ways.

The panel ranks Mighty Patch Original at #5 and Toleriane Double Repair at #2, and humans are cooler on both. Meanwhile Salicylic Acid Daily Gentle Cleanser sits at #29 in the AI rankings and Facial Fuel Energizing Moisture Treatment for Men at #29, and humans rate both warmer than that. The panel and the humans do agree twice: Effaclar Medicated Gel Cleanser at #10 and Retinol 0.2% in Squalane at #17.

Fig. 4aAI rank vs the humans, product by product?
Overrated = the AIs rank it well above what reviewers and buyers do; sleepers = the humans’ favourites the models still rank low; consensus = where both land together.
Source · AI aggregate rank vs reviewer score + buyer rating

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 30 reviewed products

Lens 03 · Video reviews

Where the cameras pointed.

CeraVe took half of all tracked creator coverage in the category, 50% of 142 reviews. Cetaphil and Eucerin split the rest evenly, 25% apiece. Three brands, all of them incumbents, own the conversation creators are having.

Fig. 5Creator coverage, start of the period vs now?142Creator reviews tracked in the category
Share of creator coverage
Start of the period
8%
7%
7%
Others79%
Now
CeraVe50%
Cetaphil25%
Eucerin25%
Share of creator reviews by brand at the start of the period and today. Attention is a leading indicator of rank.
Source · Tracked YouTube creator reviews

as of August 3 · vs July 27

The rivalries

The fights that defined the window.

The crown · 6 lead changes

La Roche-Posay and CeraVe sit at the top of the category.

The structural fight
Incumbents
vs
Fresh / upstart

The fresh-upstart band took 20 points of the top ten from the incumbents over the window.

The shape of the shift

What actually moved underneath the leader.

The top ten opened the window at 100% incumbents. It closed at 80%. Fresh and upstart brands took twenty points off the old guard in fifteen weeks, without ever touching the No. 1 spot. The crown stayed put. The bench got crowded.

Fig. 6Share of the top ten, by segment?
0%25%50%75%100%Incumbents80% → was 100%Fresh / upstart20% → was 0%Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3
Each band is a segment's share of the ten leading slots, month by month. Forget the #1 — the story is the drift between bands.
Source · Segment share of the Skincare top ten · Apr 27 – Aug 3

as of August 3 · vs July 27 · 2 segments

The editor's read

Nothing beat La Roche-Posay or CeraVe for the top spot in fifteen weeks, and nothing looks close to trying. But the turnover below them, 64% of the top ten, 778 new brands in the tracker, says the next fight won't be for #1. It'll be for the eight seats under it, and upstarts like Naturium and Medik8 already have the momentum to take more of them.

What to watch next season
  • 01Whether Naturium and Medik8 keep climbing or stall inside the top twenty.
  • 02Whether the fresh-upstart share of the top ten keeps taking points from incumbents past 20%.
  • 03Whether any model breaks from the four-way #1 consensus of La Roche-Posay, CeraVe, Paula's Choice, and The Ordinary.
See the full Skincare ranking →
The Recap · Issue №14 · Deep dive into Skincare · Apr 27 – Aug 3Reported throughChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · AI Mode leaderboardGoogle review ratings & volumeTracked YouTube creator reviewsCaptured August 3How we do this →

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